"You have a 20% chance of winning this job offer," I shared.
My client was taken aback. "What do you mean? Why would you say that?"
"There are 5 candidates. Simple straight line odds, 1 in 5 chance," I reasoned.
He still wasn't buying it. "I think you underestimate me. I think my chances are much greater."
This is not unusual. I've had this conversation numerous times with multiple clients. They overestimate their chances. He knew nothing about the other candidates yet he was evaluating his chances as higher than the straight line odds.
I wasn't saying this to him to demotivate him. Quite the opposite. I needed him to put in the work that would be required to actually improve his odds of winning. Unfortunately, he was resting on his laurels and gauging his future outcomes based on past performances.
"Here's the rub," I shared. "One of those other 4 has better experience. Another has a good friend on the inside pulling for her. Somebody else is simply outworking you to prepare. Given these factors I think 20% is overly optimistic. The other candidates stand a better chance if you don't put in the work."
He sat quietly for a moment. "Wow. I hadn't thought about that."
"Ready for your next mock interview?"